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Love Island spoiler: Ovie urges Amber to take big risk as she’s torn between her head and heart before the recoupling

Entrepreneur CelebsNow


'Amber has a big decision to make In tonight’s episode of Love Island , viewers will watch as Amber attempts to decide between new hunk Greg and former flame Michael, ahead of the big recoupling.Amber hit it off with Irish hottie Greg during their first date but was left feeling torn when ex bae Michael finally confessed that he still had feelings for her.Having shut down all of Amber’s attempts to rekindle their romance in favour of cracking on with Joanna, Michael changed his mind after Joanna was dumped from the Island.After feisty Newcastle girl Amber confesses her feelings of confusion in the Beach Hut, she confides in pals Ovie and Belle.Slating fire fighter Michael, Belle remarks: ‘He has completely betrayed your trust and picked someone else over you.If I was in your position, I would start something new with someone else.’ READ MORE CELEBRITY NEWS Clinging to the idea of getting back together with Michael, Amber replies: ‘I feel like I have a great connection with Michael.He makes me happy when I speak to him and I love the conversations that we have.’ Ovie agrees, chipping in to advise Amber to listen to her heart: ‘The connection you have with Michael is much stronger than the connection you have with Greg.At the end of the day, to win big, you’ve got to bet big.’ Amber decides to chat to Michael ahead of the recoupling, telling him: ‘I don’t know what to do for the best.It was only last night you put your cards on the table.’ MORE: Love Island star Joanna Chimonides reveals seriously TERRIFYING secret about the villa Accepting that whatever happens, happens, Michael says: ‘I’ve made the decision that put us in this situation.And I have to live with that.You know that I like you, that’s all you need to know really.’ When it is finally Amber’s turn to make her big decision, she begins: ‘It’s been the hardest decision that I’ve had to make and I really don’t know what the right thing to do is…’ Will Amber risk it with Michael or start something fresh with Greg?Love Island airs tonight at 9pm on ITV2 . The post Love Island spoiler: Ovie urges Amber to take big risk as she’s torn between her head and heart before the recoupling appeared first on CelebsNow .'

Betting on speculative geoengineering may risk an escalating ‘climate debt crisis’

Entrepreneur The Conversation

The world economy collapsed when homeowners couldn't repay subprime mortgages. We're now making a similar bet on 'repaying' carbon emissions.
'Vladi333 / shutterstock The opening of the Oscar-winning film The Big Short, a comedy-drama on the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, begins with a famous quote : “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” This phrase captures one of the main reasons why the US housing bubble popped in 2008, triggering the worst economic recession since the 1930s. The movie portrays an eccentric hedge fund manager discussing the idea of betting against subprime mortgage bonds . The investment bankers, at first, reply politely: “Those bonds only fail if millions of Americans don’t pay mortgages. That’s never happened in history.” But it happened. And as a consequence, many people worldwide have suffered severely, and the enduring effects still haunt us, politically and economically, even a decade later . In a new paper published in Climate Policy , we argue that a similar tragic “debt crisis” could unfold for climate change. The “debt” would be measured in excess carbon emissions , which will keep accumulating until we reach net-zero. In this scenario, the bankers are those who assume that the debt will be paid back by removing carbon from the atmosphere. But such a bet will be necessary if we recklessly embark on the strategy of reducing emissions slowly and removing carbon later, while in the meantime using speculative technology to block out heat from the sun. Among climate scientists and policy analysts, this is the so-called temperature “overshoot and peak-shaving” scenario. ‘Overshoot and peak-shaving’ In December 2015, the world adopted the Paris Agreement and pledged to limit global temperature rise well below 2℃ – if not 1.5℃ – above pre-industrial levels. Despite that, global CO₂ emissions continue to rise . The slow and uneven pace of global emissions reductions is increasing the likelihood of “overshoot” scenarios , in which warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 or 2°C, but will later fall to the target temperature through the large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies . These remove CO₂ from the atmosphere by, for example, planting trees or scrubbing it through chemical filters and burying it deep underground. But the world would still need to adapt to the impacts of increased warming during the overshooting period. Because of this concern, the idea of so-called “ peak-shaving ” has also emerged among some scientists who want to avoid such an overshoot by temporarily using solar geoengineering. Solar geoengineering means dimming sunlight itself. In theory, the Earth could be cooled very quickly by, for example, spraying sulphate aerosols in the upper atmosphere. Small particles in the upper atmosphere could reflect a few percent of incoming solar radiation. Hughhunt , CC BY-SA The concept of an “overshoot and peak-shaving” scenario is therefore based on the temporary use of solar geoengineering, combined with large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies. In this scenario, the two technologies are in a mutually dependent relationship – solar geoengineering is used to keep the temperature down for the time being, while negative emissions technologies are used to reduce atmospheric CO₂ to the point where solar geoengineering is no longer needed. Emissions debt and temperature debt But this assumed reciprocity may not work as intended. Here, the notion of debt is useful. As the sociologist Lisa Adkins suggests, the logic of debt rests on a promise to pay (back) in the future. In this sense, both overshooting and peak-shaving can be seen as acts of “borrowing” or “creating debt”. Overshooting avoids reducing carbon emissions today by effectively borrowing emissions from the future (creating “emissions debt”), with a promise to pay back that debt later through negative emissions technologies. Peak-shaving is borrowing global temperature (creating “temperature debt”) through the temporary use of solar geoengineering to cancel excess warming until the point when no further borrowing, of either sort, is needed. In such an outcome the world will take on a double debt: “emissions debt” and “temperature debt”. Emissions debt results from the near-term excess of CO₂ emissions in the overshoot compared to the non-overshoot scenario, while temperature debt results from the temporary masking of warming committed by excess emissions above the target temperature. Asayama & Hulme The analogy with housing loans The fact of being indebted may not sound so bad. (Almost everyone has a debt of some kind in their everyday life, right?) But the key question is: can we duly pay off this “climate debt”? How credible is the promise? Here, the analogy with housing loans is most useful for properly rating the riskiness of such debt repayment. Given that overshoot allows slow rates of emissions reductions by “promising” that delays can be compensated later through carbon removal, this looks a bit like borrowing an adjustable-rate subprime mortgage loan. Peak-shaving, on the other hand, is more like borrowing additional loans for “home improvement”, which maintains house values – (keeps global temperature constant during the overshooting period). Since most negative emissions technologies are still speculative or under development, overshoot should be rated like a subprime loan with a high risk of default. Just as American homeowners weren’t able to keep paying their mortgages after all, so negative emissions technologies may never be an effective enough way to take carbon out of the atmosphere. This doesn’t sound like a secure, feasible investment. The failure to keep the overshoot promise of later repayment would lead to endless peak-shaving. Solar geoengineering would become an ongoing necessity – an unpayable massive “climate debt” accumulating year-by-year. Framing matters — let’s not blind ourselves Concerns over crossing so-called “tipping points” – paving the way toward a “ hothouse Earth ” – may push some people towards accepting overshooting and peak-shaving. But because this is a speculative scenario, it matters how we frame it. Some scientists say that solar geoengineering is like a drug to lower high-blood pressure – an overdose is harmful, but a “well-chosen” and limited dose can lower your risks, helping you have a healthier life. They suggest that solar geoengineering is not a substitute for cutting emissions but a supplement for containing global temperature increases. But this works only if negative emissions technologies are rolled out very swiftly on a massive scale. Read more: Blocking out the sun won't fix climate change – but it could buy us time The housing loans analogy sheds light on an important assumption that is implicitly built into such a scenario, namely that overshooting is simply like borrowing money (for example, a mortgage) and that people pay back mortgages. This was also the unquestioned assumption in the run up to the US housing market crisis and it created the systemic failure to notice the growing risk of the bubble bursting. We shouldn’t fool ourselves into believing that a similar “debt crisis” will not happen for managing the risk of climate change. Beware the dubious promises of “overshoot and peak-shaving” technologies – they may well turn out to be risky subprime loans. Shinichiro Asayama receives funding from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for JSPS ResearchFellow (17J02207). Mike Hulme does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.'

LGBT people at ‘huge risk’ of forced marriage, police warn

Entrepreneur PinkNews

The UK’s national Forced Marriage Unit has warned that LGBT+ people may be at “huge risk” of being forced into opposite-sex marriages, adding that they have not yet “scratched the surface” of the issue.
'The UK’s national Forced Marriage Unit has warned that LGBT+ people may be at “huge risk” of being forced into opposite-sex marriages, adding that they have not yet “scratched the surface” of the issue.The Independent reports that a record of 1,764 potential forced marriages were investigated in 2018, but police don’t know the true figure because victims don’t realise the practice is a crime, or are not willing or able to report relatives. 93 percent of forced marriages happen abroad, and with the school summer holidays beginning this week, it’s feared that LGBT+ teens could be at particular risk as there is less chance their absence would be noted.With this in mind, officers are being stationed at major UK airports in a bid to prevent victims being taken out of the country.The Metropolitan Police and Border Force are targeting flights to high-risk countries (Paul Miller/AAP) Det Sgt Trudy Gittins, who leads on forced marriage at West Midlands Police, told The Independent that the practice has carried down to the third generation of immigrant families living in the UK. “One of the big focuses for us is the LGBT community,” she said. “It’s a real risk in some cultures to be outed or come out as gay if your family doesn’t approve. “That can be a huge risk for forced marriage and what you also find is sham marriages, where gay people marry each other to placate the family but live their lives.” She said some families also believe in “ corrective rape ” — the practice of forcing a LGBT+ person to have sex with someone of the opposite sex in an attempt to change their sexuality.If marriages don’t go ahead there might be consequences and problems for the wider family.Cases of forced marriage in the UK have been connected with more than 110 countries, but the nations with the highest known prevalence are Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Somalia, Afghanistan and Romania.Flights to these high-prevalence countries were targeted by the Metropolitan Police and Border Force, who patrolled Heathrow Airport on Tuesday (July 16) to speak to passengers and observe any suspicious activity.The National Police Chiefs’ Council lead for forced marriage, Ivan Balhatchet, said: “Police will investigate every case fully and take all available steps to detect and prosecute those involved in this heinous crime.Forcing someone to marry is punishable by up to seven years in prison.” Many victims are afraid to seek help Although there have been some successful prosecutions in recent years, many victims don’t seek help as they don’t want to see their parents or relatives being arrested, or bring “shame and dishonour” to their family. “If marriages don’t go ahead there might be consequences and problems for the wider family,” said Gittins, adding that some mothers had threatened to kill themselves to force their children to go ahead with a marriage. “You’ve still got deeply embedded cultures in the third generation, and people are still migrating who bring these beliefs with them.” Gittins highlighted the pressures that many LGBT+ people face from their families, citing the case of Jasvir Ginday, British-Sikh gay man who was found guilty of murdering his wife after she discovered his sexuality.What to do if you’re being forced into a marriage Official government advice for those being forced into marriage is to contact the Forced Marriage Unit on 020 7008 0151.If you are unable to make contact, ask a trusted friend to call on your behalf, giving details of the flight and the airports you are travelling to and from.Call 999 if you are in immediate danger.If a prosecution is not possible, UK courts can also impose forced marriage protection orders to prevent a non-consensual marriage from taking place.The service is free and the order can be initiated by a third party if you are unable to do so. . The post LGBT people at ‘huge risk’ of forced marriage, police warn appeared first on PinkNews - Gay news, reviews and comment from the world's most read lesbian, gay, bisexual, and trans news service .'