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Tesla analysts up and down Wall Street are painting an ugly picture as the focus turns to all-important delivery numbers

Electric cars Business Insider UK

'We raise our delivery estimate to ~85k vehicles from ~75k, but still forecast ongoing losses,' the Barclays analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a report.
'Tesla shareholders and analysts are gearing up for the electric automaker’s second-quarter delivery figures, which are expected in the coming days.The results, which follow last quarter’s poor numbers , arrive at a unique moment for the automaker; shares have bounced in recent weeks after a devastating months-long sell-off.Analysts at prominent Wall Street firms have warned investors in recent days that while delivery figures will likely meet or exceed expectations, the earnings outlook still looks grim. “We raise our delivery estimate to ~85k vehicles from ~75k, but still forecast ongoing losses,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a recent report.Track Tesla shares here in real time . Tesla may release second-quarter delivery figures in the coming week that sate Wall Street’s expectations.But the automaker’s future profitability and questionable underlying demand remain fundamental wildcards.That’s what a cadre of equity analysts at investment giants from Goldman Sachs to Barclays have conveyed to investors in recent days as Tesla is expected to release quarterly delivery figures in early July. “While we believe 2Q19 should be fine – and the company likely achieves volumes near FactSet consensus – we do believe 2H19 (and beyond) volume estimates look high considering there are fewer levers to pull to stoke demand going forward,” the Goldman analyst David Tamberrino, who rates Tesla a “sell,” wrote in a note June 20 note.Markets Insider is looking for a panel of millennial investors.If you’re active in the markets, CLICK HERE to sign up.As many of his equity analyst peers have done this year amid the stock’s months-long decline, Tamberrino cut his target on the stock for the fourth time this year to $158 from $200.He expects the second quarter was a “better environment” for deliveries, but to an unsustainable degree.Tamberrino added: “We believe that is the largest question for investors to underwrite at this point – what are sustainable demand levels for the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 – and how does that change with the introduction of Model Y production.” Foto: Tesla’s US Model S and Model 3 deliveries.sourceGoldman Sachs A bonus just for you: Click here to claim 30 days of access to Business Insider PRIME Tamberrino is far from alone.His reduced target underscores the volatility in expectations for Elon Musk’s automaker, mirrored in its stock price, in recent months.After Tesla reported a 31% quarter-over-quarter drop in vehicle deliveries in April, stoking demand concerns, analysts say the company appears better-positioned for deliveries this time around.The stock is up 27% since plunging to a 2 1/2-year low in early June . But that improved near-term outlook may not be still not enough to mark a sea change. “Expect improved Q2 deliveries to drive shares near term,” the sell-rated UBS analyst Colin Langan told investors on Friday, “but Q2 profits and second half deliveries keep us cautious.” That view prompted Langan to cut his price target for the third time this year, to $160 from $200, and reduce his earnings estimates for this year through 2023.He now expects a 2019 loss of $8.00 per share, up from a loss of $6.15.Read more: Another Tesla analyst just slashed his price target for the 3rd time this year ahead of critical delivery numbers Others have conveyed a similar view.Barclays analyst Brian Johnson, long a Tesla bear, upped his delivery estimates in a Thursday note to clients.But he still sees a quarterly loss in the cards. “We raise our delivery estimate to ~85k vehicles from ~75k, but still forecast ongoing losses,” Johnson said.Credit Suisse, for its part, initiated Tesla coverage on Wednesday with an “underperform” rating and bearish $189 price target.The analyst believes investors haven’t fully appreciated risks around the stock. “Tesla has struggled in the manufacturing, delivering, and servicing of vehicles, implying risk that its edge in the ‘value add’ side will be a moot point,” the analysts Dan Levy and Robert Moon.Foto: Tesla vehicle deliveries versus service footprint.sourceCredit Suisse Tesla CEO Elon Musk, as well as bullish equity analysts covering the stock, have sought to put concerns over underlying demand to rest.In an email to employees last Tuesday, Musk said Tesla was close to setting a record for the number of vehicles delivered in one quarter, Business Insider’s Graham Rapier and Mark Matousek reported . “I think we expect demand to – we are seeing demand returning to normal in Q2,” Musk said on the company’s April earnings call in response to an analyst’s question. “And it might be a little better than normal.It’s – I don’t have a crystal ball, so it’s hard for me to say, but my impression right now is that demand is quite solid, quite strong, yes.” Now read more Tesla coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider: One of Tesla’s most optimistic backers explains why it’s doubling down as other investors rush for the exits Tesla’s dismal results are highlighting the divide between die-hard bulls and doomsday bears The investment giant that was once Tesla’s biggest Wall Street backer cut its stake in half last year.Now it’s dumped most of what was left.Tesla closes at a 2 1/2-year low after Wall Street unleashes scathing new research on the electric-car maker’s troubles A vocal Tesla bull says he can no longer ‘look investors in the eye’ and recommend the stock Workers at Tesla’s Buffalo solar tile factory say the company sabotaged their efforts to find new jobs after trying to unionize Foto: Tesla shares.sourceMarkets Insider . The post Tesla analysts up and down Wall Street are painting an ugly picture as the focus turns to all-important delivery numbers appeared first on Business Insider Nederland .'

Ford Bridgend closure: the UK's car industry could stage a revival by recycling rare earths

Electric cars The Conversation

To become an attractive prospect for electric car manufacturers, the UK needs to sort out its supplies of rare earths – Brexit, or no Brexit.
'This isn't goodbye. Shutterstock. The intended closure of Ford’s Bridgend engine plant in 2020, with the loss of 1,700 jobs, has sent shock waves through Wales. Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price, has described it as “one of the worst acts of ‘industrial vandalism’ seen in the UK for decades.” Ford representatives have said that the company needs to “make its engine manufacturing base suitable for the vehicles it produces in the future.” With electric vehicles (EVs) commanding a growing share of the global car market , many including Professor David Bailey have stated that the “production of electric motors was much more important to securing Ford Bridgend’s future” in order to stay competitive in the global automotive industry. Engine manufacturing is the most valuable part of making a conventional car . An enormous amount of knowledge, skill and research and development is required to make highly sophisticated internal combustion engines. Ford is the largest producer of these engines in the UK – and about half of its output comes from the Bridgend factory. Experts have observed that the electrification of cars “is arguably more of a threat to the UK automotive industry than Brexit.” But there is still a chance for the UK to stage a revival. Opportunity knocks There is already some EV manufacturing taking place in the UK, by Nissan in Sunderland and Aston Martin in South Wales . There are also new facilities being established to manufacture EV batteries and the materials required to make them, from Port Talbot to Coventry . But there have been setbacks: critically, the UK is no longer a headquarters for any major auto producer, let alone one leading in the EV space. It’s difficult to build up sustainable operations when decisions are made overseas. This is evident in Jaguar Land Rover’s decision to cut UK production of its Discovery model, while subcontracting i-Pace electric production to Magna Steyr in Austria. Without being able to rely on any favour from an indigenous car maker, the UK must take its own steps to become the best place to make EVs. With the UK government keen to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 , there’s an opportunity for the nation’s automotive industry to develop and deploy EV technology and become a global leader – but this needs to start now, or the chance will be lost. Supply and demand There are two key factors for success – supply and demand. Of course, there must be enough demand for products manufactured in the UK, and the nation must be able to export to those markets. But the UK must also have good access to the supply chains that provide the parts and materials needed to manufacture EVs. Many commentators already lament the effect that Brexit is having on the UK automotive sector . Less obvious, is how this may affect the supply of critical materials needed to develop and manufacture EVs. Global concerns about the supply of these materials is rising – and organisations, including the International Energy Agency , are investigating. Fuel of the future. Shutterstock. The UK does not have local supplies of many of these materials – but as a member of the European Union, it is a part of the bloc’s broader strategy. After Brexit, the UK will have to consider its strategy in isolation. Some have warned that the UK could be “held to ransom” over supplies of these critical materials. China has a near monopoly on the supply of rare earth materials such as Neodymium, which is used to make the powerful magnets used in the most efficient EV motors. As tensions between China and the US escalate, there’s a chance China could use its power over rare earth supply for leverage, which could cause significant shocks to Western car manufacturers. Some manufacturers have been spooked by this prospect and are exploring rare earth-free engines – though currently these designs are less efficient. But a less efficient motor will require a bigger battery to provide the same range (all other things being equal) and bigger batteries will place pressure on other critical materials supply chains – such as Cobalt and Lithium. Recycling rare earths To succeed then, the UK needs a unique selling point – some advantage that other countries do not have. It needs access to these key resources. Despite their name, rare earths are not actually scarce. But there is a need to develop processing routes and new cleaner techniques for producing these materials . The UK could become a world leader in the supply of these materials – not through mining and extraction, but through recycling and processing. The UK already has research and development organisations leading projects investigating the reuse and recycling of battery materials. A similar capacity to recycle rare earth magnets would safeguard the UK’s supply chain and help stabilise the price of materials used to manufacture EVs. A large collaborative EU project, with a significant UK presence, SUSMAGPRO , will tackle some of these challenges. But for UK automotive it’s essential that more of this capability is embedded in the fabric of UK industry to support the supply chains that will power the EV revolution. Saving South Wales There are already encouraging signs that the skills and capabilities exist in South Wales to support the transition towards producing electric drivetrains. Indeed, the UK’s only producer of electrical steels – Cogent Power Ltd – is based in Newport. There is also a longstanding base for soft magnetic materials research at Cardiff University School of Engineering, and significant new investment is being made to develop this area further. This is complemented by research and facilities at Swansea University and the University of South Wales, with specialism in steel processing . In spite of significant closures, hope is not lost for the UK’s automotive industry. But the time to act is now. Gavin Harper receives funding from The Faraday Institution's ReLiB project (Recycling and Reuse of Lithium Ion Batteries) and is affiliated to the Birmingham Centre for Strategic Elements & Critical Materials. Calvin Jones does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.'

Electric cars and charging stations are starting to mature – The Detroit News

Electric cars BusinessTelegraph

Electric cars and charging stations are starting to mature  The Detroit News Audi e-tron shows there is more to the business of EV battery usage than just range.
' Electric cars and charging stations are starting to mature   The Detroit News Audi e-tron shows there is more to the business of EV battery usage than just range. READ SOURCE . The post Electric cars and charging stations are starting to mature – The Detroit News appeared first on BusinessTelegraph .'